New york times virus iran

A Western official who tracks the program told me that, at the current rate, the Iranians could have enough enriched material for a bomb in less than seven months.

David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, estimates that it could take half that long. Constructing a sophisticated weapon with the enriched uranium would likely require twelve to eighteen months more. A crude device could be ready to test much sooner, though—perhaps in the Iranian desert. Thus far, Iranian leaders apparently have not begun working to weaponize a nuclear device.

Yet the uncertainty has refocussed Western intelligence analysts on a pressing question: Will Khamenei decide to build a weapon? Most analysts I spoke to believe that he will not, unless the regime faces an existential threat from outside the country. But if he dies? On January 6th, Khamenei stood at the front of a huge crowd at Tehran University and wept. In Tehran, the line of mourners stretched more than three miles.

Suleimani was also expected to help Khamenei orchestrate the selection of a successor, insuring that the next Supreme Leader suited his wishes. But most current members belong to the original revolutionary generation, and are now visibly slowed by age.

But many Iranians believe that, after Khamenei departs, the I. Some expect the Guard to try to rule outright. Raisi, along with leading the judiciary, is an influential member of the Assembly of Experts.

He also proved his revolutionary fervor at the end of the Iran-Iraq War, when he helped carry out the extrajudicial killings of thousands of M. The coronavirus outbreak has only strengthened the I.

In March, Khamenei gave the Guard responsibility for containing the virus, and since then it has deployed tens of thousands of troops throughout the country. A public-health specialist working for the Ministry of Health told me that thousands of Basij militiamen are moving around Iran, without any protective gear, to disinfect buildings and streets.

Many Western diplomats and experts believe that the I. With Khamenei still in power, most signs suggest that the Iranian state is becoming even more conservative. Before the parliamentary elections in February, legal and clerical authorities barred seven thousand candidates—more than half of those who attempted to run. Among them were ninety current members of parliament, including a number of conservatives. Still, some Iranians believe that many of the I. The reformist leader I spoke to, who is in touch with several I.

The government would be run by technocrats, not clerics, and the generals would loosen controls on freedom of speech and dress. That prediction struck many Western experts as overly optimistic.

The reform-minded officers inside the I. If those factions are unable to agree on a Supreme Leader, then the process could go out of control. The deteriorating relations with the U.

Khamenei vowed revenge, and, on January 8th, Iranian missiles struck two U. Later that day, a Ukrainian Airlines plane went down near the Tehran airport, with a hundred and seventy-six people on board. The government initially denied any involvement, but reports on social media revealed that the Revolutionary Guard had shot down the plane, mistaking it for an enemy cruise missile.

Angry demonstrations broke out. Many Iranians I spoke to believed that the regime would strike again, in an attempt to humiliate Trump before the election in November. The same might be true for Trump, whose rhetoric has grown more bombastic since the Suleimani strike. Even as Iranians speculate about who will succeed Khamenei, many believe that, whoever becomes Supreme Leader, the revolution is no longer salvageable.

One of them is Faezeh Rafsanjani, a former member of parliament and the daughter of the late President Rafsanjani.

In , she emphatically endorsed the protesters. Rafsanjani became a target of unrelenting harassment, especially by members of the Basij. In one incident, captured in a video that surfaced in early , Rafsanjani was walking out of a mosque when she was confronted by an overbearing militiaman. Should I rip your mouth open right here? On a gray morning, I met Rafsanjani in her office. She wore a pink head scarf that obscured her face, but her eyes burned with urgency and intelligence.

While she talked, she sat—and occasionally stood—behind a metal desk covered with heaps of papers. Rafsanjani had little faith left in the system founded forty-one years ago. She noted that Rouhani had taken office with an overwhelming mandate for change. And when you put these two together you start to realize why these things keep happening. The result is that the Iranian people have lost hope. We are hopeless now. At Tehran International, I breezed through the security lines until I got to the checkpoint nearest the boarding gate.

I was waiting for my backpack to come through the X-ray machine when a man put his hand on my shoulder. I was led to a room the size of a walk-in closet, where five men were waiting. As we sat down, our knees touched. One man, sweating, with a pinched face and an ill-fitting shirt, led the questioning.

Another man translated. There was no chitchat. I thought of all the Iranians I had met after hours, who would be in danger now. The interrogator took my phone, and one of his men carried it out of the room. I wondered how long my plane would wait for me. I thought of Nicolas Pelham, a correspondent for The Economist. He was held for seven weeks. The questioning continued for several minutes, as the time of my flight came and went.

The interrogator asked about Masoud Bastani, the muckraking journalist. I was terrified that Bastani would be sent back to prison. By then, the man had come back with my phone. Grasping for something, I told the interrogator to check it. He looked at the phone, and found nothing.

For a moment, he seemed embarrassed. Then he handed it back to me. Have a nice flight. By Dexter Filkins. By Robin Wright. Content This content can also be viewed on the site it originates from. There will be plenty of time in the morning to figure out how something like this could have happened. Enter your e-mail address.

A Reporter at Large. And I was so excited to finally meet him and just get a chance to tell him what a great influence he'd been and how much he'd inspired my career. And now we grieve as a family.

Bob made us laugh until we cried. Bob, we love you dearly. No one gave better hugs than Bob. I am so deeply touched by the outpouring of love and tribute from our friends, family, his fans and his peers. Thank you for respecting my privacy at this time. Sign up and follow Audacy.

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